Research house Lightstone says it anticipates a new-vehicle sales market for 2025 of around 555 500 units – up 7.7% on last year – of which 524 000 units will be passenger and light commercial vehicles.
This is well above the 3% contraction seen in new-vehicle sales in 2024.
Lightstone warns, however, that continued local and global macroeconomic pressures could have a negative impact as the year progresses.
The group expects domestic GDP to expand at 1.2% in 2025 (versus 0.6% in 2024), while it is anticipated that the rand will weaken marginally against major global currencies.
Headline consumer inflation is expected to remain within the Reserve Bank’s 3% to 6% target range.
New Energy Vehicle Sales Declining
New hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric passenger vehicle sales – new energy vehicle (NEV) sales – as reported to naamsa | The Automotive Business Council, were down 0.9% (7 102 units), for the first six months in 2025 compared with the same period last year, highlights Lightstone.
The same six months last year recorded a 124% jump from the comparable period in 2023.
Lightstone believes it is unlikely that naamsa non-sales-reporters could have contributed more than an additional 0.2% to this market segment.
Traditional hybrid vehicles contributed 84.5% of the reported sales in the NEV sub- segment over the first six months of this year, with battery electric vehicles making up 8.5% of sales, and plug-in hybrid vehicles 7%.
Lightstone also notes that new-light- vehicle price inflation in South Africa rose 1.3% year-on-year in May this year – the seventeenth successive month it has come in below headline inflation.
The May number was also lower than the April year-on-year increase of 1.6%.
Repayment Periods Rising
Light-vehicle buyers are also continuing to finance their purchases over longer-term contracts – this according to Lightstone’s analysis of data gleaned from its Signio platform.
In 2015, the 72-month repayment window accounted for 73% of deals, growing to an 87% share in 2020, before slipping back to 72% in 2025.
It remains the most popular financing term.
Ten years ago, 60 months was the second most popular financing window selection, with a 17% share of the market, with 48 months in third place, with a 3% share.
Fast forward to 2025, and the second most popular financing term, at 10% of the market, is 96 months – the longest financing window on record, according to Lightstone’s data.
The 60-month term is now at number three, with the 84-month repayment period fourth on the list.
So far this year, of all vehicle purchases financed, 89% have been signed for terms of six years or more, which is a significant shift from 2015, notes Lightstone. 
