The 2022 national census indicated that Cape Town had a population of 4.8-million people.
According to the city’s newly published 2050 draft long-term plan, officials project that Cape Town will have between 1.5-million and 2.9-million more residents by 2050.
Cape Town is the second-biggest city in terms of population in South Africa, notes the 2050 plan, adding that the composition of the city’s population is changing.
“We are growing, but at a slower rate than in the past, and our overall population is also getting older.”
The 2050 plan notes that South Africa has a relatively low fertility rate (2.3 births per woman) compared with other African countries, thus following a similar trajectory to European countries.
“We anticipate that over the next 25 years the fertility rate will hold constant, or decline gradually, limiting natural population increase across the country, with the same being true for Cape Town.”
The draft plan notes, however, that migration rates will be a driver of population growth in Cape Town.
It adds that migration patterns in the region remain highly uncertain, influenced by the effects of climate change, impacts on rural livelihoods, and changes to relative economic prosperity of other cities throughout sub-Saharan Africa.
“Specifically, we project that the proportion of the population aged 65 and older could rise significantly in the next 25 years, from 6.2% in 2016, to 10.6% in 2035, and further to 15% by 2050,” states the draft plan.
“Despite this rise, Cape Town will still have a relatively dominant proportion of working-age population in the 25 to 50 age group.
“This will lead to an increase in demand for infrastructure and services.”
The 2050 plan notes that a higher old-age dependency ratio could have implications for healthcare, social and community services, potentially increasing strain on public resources, while also making the need for job creation even more urgent.
“Moreover, further potential decreases in household sizes could add to the pressure for housing and municipal infrastructure and services.
“Household size also has an important bearing on local economies. One- to two-person households will often look for basic amenities such as food, haircare and so forth within walking distance of their home.
“This will increasingly drive demand in the emerging economy.”
